Considering Multiple Futures: Scenario Planning to Address Uncertainty in Natural Resource Conservation

Summary Text: 

Conservation professionals face unprecedented challenges arising from changes in land use, invasive species, biodiversity, climate, and more. These changes interact in complex ways, introducing an array of uncertainties that confound natural resource decision-making. While uncertainty is not new to natural resource management, limitations in our ability to confidently predict the direction, rate, and nature of the effects of climate and other drivers of change on natural and human systems has reinforced the need for tools to cope with the associated uncertainties. 

Abstract or Description: 

Aims are to help managers, planners, and researchers to:

  • Understand the core elements of scenario planning;
  • Identify situations for which scenario planning could be a valuable tool, and what distinguishes it from other decision support frameworks and methods;
  • Understand the range of options for implementing scenario planning and identify approaches that fit their needs;
  • Get started on their own scenario planning effort; and
  • Find additional resources to support the application of a given scenario planning approach.
Publication Info: 

Rowland, E.L., M. Cross, H. Hartmann, 2014. Considering multiple futures: Scenario planning to address uncertainty in natural resource conservation.  U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Wildlife Conservation Society. 

Display Name: 
E. L. Rowland
Acadia National Park
Display Name: 
M. Cross
Wildlife Conservation Society
Display Name: 
H. Hartmann
Hartmann Consulting