Over eight million people live in areas at risk to coastal flooding, and many of the nation’s assets related to military readiness, energy, commerce, and ecosystems are already located at or near the ocean. This report provides a synthesis of the scientific literature on global sea-level rise (SLR) at the request of a federal advisory committee charged with developing the next National Climate Assessment. It also provides a set of four global mean SLR scenarios to describe future conditions for the purpose of assessing potential vulnerabilities and impacts.
This report is an interagency effort to address the lack of agreed upon estimates for future global mean sea level rise (SLR) for the purpose of coastal planning, policy, and management to better assess coastal impacts and vulnerabilities. It also provides guidance for the Scenarios Working Group of the National Climate Assessment by providing a synthesis of the scientific literature on global SLR and a set of four scenarios of future global SLR. It includes input from national experts in climate science, physical coastal processes, and coastal management.
Parris, A., P. Bromirski, V. Burkett, D. Cayan, M. Culver, J. Hall, R. Horton, K. Knuuti, R. Moss, J. Obeysekera, A. Sallenger, and J. Weiss. 2012. Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US National Climate Assessment. NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1. 37 pp.