Sources used for glossary

Many of the definitions provided are from the following works:

Moore, S.S., N.E. Seavy, M. Gerhart. 2013. Scenario planning for climate change adaptation: A guidance for resource managers. Point Blue Conservation Science and California Coastal Conservancy. 

Rowland, E.L., M.S. Cross, H. Hartmann, 2014.  Considering multiple futures: Scenario planning to address uncertainty in natural resource conservation, Washington, DC: US Fish and Wildlife Service.

Additional sources:

Bengston, D.N., A.G. Bhave, G.H. Kubik, P.C. Bishop, 2012. Strengthening environmental foresight: potential contributions of futures research. Ecology and Society, 17.

Bishop, P., A. Hines, T. Collins, 2007. The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. Foresight, 9: 5-25.

Brown, C., Y. Ghile, M. Laverty, K. Li, 2011. Decision scaling: Linking bottom-up vulnerability analysis with climate projections in the water sector. Water Resour Res., 48(9): DOI: 10.1029/2011WR011212

CBD – Convention on Biological Diversity, Secretariat, 2009. CBD Technical Series No. 41: Connecting Biodiversity and Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: Report of the Second Ad Hoc Technical Expert Group on Biodiversity and Climate Change.‐ts‐41‐en.pdf

Coreau, A., G. Pinay, J.D. Thompson, P-O. Cheptoum, L. Mermet, 2009. The rise of research on futures in ecology: rebalancing scenarios and predictions. Ecology Letters, 12: 1277-1286.

Dessai, S., J. van der Sluijs, 2007. Uncertainty and climate change adaptation- a scoping study. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Report. NWS-E-2007-198. 61 pp.

Gregory, R., L. Failing, M. Harstone, G. Long, T. McDaniels, D. Ohlson, 2012. Structured Decision Making: A Practical Guide to Environmental Management Choices. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. United Kingdom. 299 pp.

Holway, J., C.J. Gabe, F. Hebbert, J. Lally, R. Matthews, R. Quay, 2012. Opening Access to Scenario Planning Tools.  Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Cambridge MA. 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2012: Glossary of terms. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 555-564.

IPCC, 2008.  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Fourth Assessment Report. Glossary. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. IPCC Press. Accessed November 19, 2012:

Leary, N. A., 2006. A welfare theoretic analysis of climate change inequities. In W. N. Adger, J. Paavola, S. Huq, M. J. Mace (Eds.), Fairness in Adaptation to Climate Change,  pp. 155–178. Cambridge: MIT Press.

Liu, Y., H. Gupta, E. Springer, T. Wagener, 2008. Linking science with environmental decision making: experiences from an integrated modeling approach to supporting sustainable water resources management. Environmental Modeling & Software, 23: 846–858.

Mahmoud, M., Y. Liu, H. Hartmann, et al., 2009. A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making. Environmental Modelling & Software, 24: 798-808.  doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.010

Mietzner, D., and G. Reger (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, Vol. 1, No. 2: 220 – 239. Accessed May 27, 2013:

Milly, P.C.D., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R.M. Hirsch, Z.W. Kundzewica, D.P. Letternmeier, R.J. Stouffer, 2008. Stationarity is dead: Whither water management? Science, 319(5863): 573-574. doi:10.1126/science.1151915

Moss, R.H., N.L. Engle, J. Hall, K. Jacobs, R. Lempert, L.O. Mearns, J. Melillo, P. Mote, P., S. O’Brien, C. Rozenzweig, A. Ruane, S. Sheppard, R.W. Vallario, A. Wiek, T.  Wilbanks, 2011. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants. PNLL SA20040. 39 pp.

National Research Council of the National Academy of Science, 2004. Adaptive Management for Water Resources Planning. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

National Research Council, 2011. America’s Climate Choices. National Academies Press, Washington, D.C. http://

Refsgaard, J.C., J.P. van der Sluijs, A.L. Hojberg, P.A. Vanrolleghem, 2007. Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process : A framework and guidance. Environmental Modelling & Software 22: 1543-1556.

Regan, H.M., M. Colyvan, M.A. Burgman, 2002. Taxonomy and treatement of uncertainty for ecology and conservation biology. Ecological Applications,12: 618-628.

Rounsvelle, M.D.A., M.J. Metzger, 2010. Developing qualitative storylines for environmental change assessment. WIREs Climate Change, 1: 606-619.

Shearer, A.W. 2005. Approaching scenario-based studies: three perceptions about the future and considerations for landscape planning. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 32: 67-87.

Sheppard, S.R.J., A. Shaw, S. Burch, D. Flanders, A. Wiek, J. Carmichael, J. Robinson, and S. Cohen, 2011. Future visioning of local climate change: A framework for community engagement and planning with scenarios and visualization. Futures, 43(4): 400-412. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.01.009

Varum, C.A., and C. Melo. 2010. Directions in scenario planning literature-A review of the past decades. Futures, 42: 355-369.

Walker, B.H., S.R. Carpenter, J. Rockstrom, A-S. Crepin, G.D. Paterson, 2012. Drivers, “slow” variables, “fast” variables, shocks and resilience. Ecology and Society,17: 30.

Williams, B. K., and E. D. Brown, 2012. Adaptive Management: The U.S. Department of the Interior Applications Guide. Adaptive Management Working Group, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC.

Wollenberg, E., D. Edmunds, L. Buck, 2000. Using scenarios to make decisions about the future: Anticipatory learning for the adaptive co-management of community forests. Landscape and Urban Planning, 47(1), 65–77.